Troy Kimmel's Exclusive Forecast


TROY KIMMEL’S WEATHER DISCUSSION...
5 AM CDT... FRIDAY... 10 OCTOBER 2008...


.... Drier and Stable Conditions Continue ....
.... Another Low Pressure Disturbance By the Late in the Weekend ...

Even as southerly wind picks up across the area and starts to return low level moisture.. a stable air mass continues to prevail across our area.

Another upper air disturbance will once again move by.. well to the north of us.. from the Rockies into central plains by the mid and later part of the weekend into early next week. Earlier guidance suggested that a stronger cold front would surge southeastward through the area after the system passes.. by Monday and Monday night.. but the latest guidance now says the front will be a little weaker and will be delayed a bit into Wednesday.

I will be out of town attending National Weather Association Annual Meetings in Louisville from Saturday through next Wednesday and will not be updating my on line forecasts.

Have a good Friday...
Troy Kimmel, Chief Meteorologist


TROY KIMMEL’S EXCLUSIVE FORECAST FOR
AUSTIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...


TODAY.... Brief morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy and more humid. High 86 to 90. Southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT.... Partly cloudy early with a low overcast after midnight. Low 67 to 71. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY.... Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 85 to 89. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT.... Partly cloudy early... low clouds after midnight. Low 68 to 72. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY.... Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 85 to 89.

SUNDAY NIGHT.... Partly cloudy early... low clouds after midnight. Low 69 to 73.

MONDAY.... Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 85 to 89.

MONDAY NIGHT.... Partly cloudy early... low clouds after midnight. Low 69 to 73.

TUESDAY.... Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with a less than 20% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. High 85 to 89.

TUESDAY NIGHT.... A less than 20% chance of evening rain showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy early... low clouds after 10pm. Low 70 to 74.

WEDNESDAY.... Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms as a cold front moves southeastward across the area. High 84 to 88.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT.... Partly cloudy and a little cooler. Low 63 to 67.

THURSDAY.... Partly cloudy. High 83 to 87.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Fri / 17 Oct through Thu / 23 Oct 2008

Temperature... Near Average
Precipitation... Near Average


AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES.....
Sunrise this morning...... 7:30 am
Sunset tonight................ 7:05 pm
Sunrise Saturday............ 7:31 am
Sunset Saturday............. 7:04 pm


....AUSTIN AREA POLLEN COUNT....
...RECORDED FRIDAY / 10 OCTOBER 2008...
(Note: This is the most recent report that has been provided.
This count is updated as provided on weekdays only and
is courtesy of Austin Allergy Associates and
Dr. T. Ray Vaughn and Dr. P. Dennis Dyer

Molds..... 1350 gr/cubic meter (Moderate) - Down Since Last Reading
Grasses..... 0 gr/cubic meter (Low)
Weeds...... 105 gr/cubic meter (High)
...Breakdown of Weeds:
...Ragweed 105...
Trees...... 4 gr/cubic meter (Low)
...Breakdown of Trees:
...Fall Elm 2.. Red Berry Juniper 2...


------------------------------------------------

STORM REPORTS?

If you have a report of hail.. strong wind or wind damage.. heavy rain/flooding.. snow/ice.. or any other type of severe/inclement weather, please send me email with the details (see below). I appreciate it - and may use it on the air - and the National Weather Service will appreciate it, too!!

Please send in the following format:
- Your Name / Phone Number
(These will be for my use only in case I need to reach you)
- Basic Type of Weather Observed
(i.e., Hail, Strong Damaging Wind, Rain/Flooding)
- Additional Comments Regarding Weather
(i.e., "Three trees uprooted, power lines down")
- Your Exact Location/Address/County
(i.e., 4 miles west of Bastrop on Highway 71 or
2334 Everyday Road in southeast Austin, TX 78701)
- Exact Date and Time / Range of Time of Occurrence

Send Your Storm Reports: troykimmel@clearchannel.com


----------------------------------------------------------

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arrange for me to come and talk to your classroom... or...
If you'd like me to come speak to your organization...
then please email me at: troykimmel@clearchannel.com

On Air Details
Personality Contacts
Personality Bio
For Troy Kimmel's bio, please see the PDF located at...
http://www.utexas.edu/depts/grg/kimmel/KIMMELBIO.pdf

Troy Kimmel, a native Texan, has been involved in broadcast meteorology even before his graduation from Texas A & M University (B.S., Geography) in 1984.

Starting in television back in 1978 at KBTX-TV in Bryan/College Station, as Weather Director, he was responsible for the weeknight weathercasts. In 1984, he moved to KVUE 24 Television (ABC) in Austin where he worked for almost ten years. From 1993 to 1994, he worked as Chief Meteorologist with the Lower Colorado River Authority and then from 1994 to 1997 as Chief Meteorologist with KTBC/Fox 7 Television. Most recently, until December 2003, he worked as Chief Meteorologist with KEYE Television . In 1997, he joined KVET/KASE/KFMK Radio Stations in Austin in his current position as Chief Meteorologist.


Kimmel has been involved in teaching in the Department of Geography and the Environment at the University of Texas at Austin as a Lecturer / Studies in Weather and Climate from 1988 through 2007. He was promoted to Senior Lecturer effective in the fall of 2007. He teaches an introductory class entitled Weather and Climate as well as an upper level division class entitled Severe and Unusual Weather. He also serves as Manager of the Weather and Climate Resource Center in the Department of Geography and the Environment. In addition, he serves as a member on the University of Texas Safety and Security Committee as well as a

member of the Public Affairs Advisory Committee in the College of Liberal Arts.


As owner of KimCo Meteorological Services, he provides meteorological data and services to companies. Since 1990, he has also worked as Team Meteorologist with the football program at Texas A & M University providing game day and practice forecasts.


Kimmel was elected as a Councilor of the National Weather Association for 2008 through 2010.

A strong proponent of continuing education for broadcast meteorologists, Kimmel has been tested and met the qualifications as a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist by the American Meteorological Society. In addition, he holds his Radio and Television Seal of
Approval from the American Meteorological Society and his Television Seal of Approval from the National Weather Association. He also holds a National Weather Service Certificate of Authority to take Basic Aviation Weather Observations. He has made several presentations at American Meteorological Society and National Weather Association meetings. In addition, he is author of several publications including Inclement/Severe Weather and Extreme

Temperature/Precipitation/Wind/Pressure Climatology for Austin and South Central Texas (2006), SkyWarn - A Guide for National Weather Service Spotters in South Central Texas (2004), Central Texas Law Enforcement Weather Spotting/Information/Safety Handbook (2004) as well as the USA Broadcast Meteorologist/Weathercaster Directory (1999).


Kimmel lives in Austin and volunteers for several local agencies including being a member of Austin Police Department=s Civil Defense Battalion and CERT Team (where he has a special assignment to the Austin Police Department Training Academy, the Austin Airport Public Safety Division, the Operations Area at Austin Bergstrom International Airport and the Office of Emergency Management). In addition, he volunteers as the Texas State Coordinator of CoCoRahs, the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network, which is a national citizens grassroots weather observer network based at Colorado State University with support of NOAA/National Weather Service and the National Science Foundation.

Personality Links

Thursday 10-09-2008 9:53pm CT
Troy Kimmel's Weather Blog...

Friday / 10 October 2008

Another disturbance.. another slim chance of rain.. by next week as a cold front
approaches by Wednesday.

You can read all the details to the left. 

By the way, I'm headed to Louisville, KY to attend the National Weather
Association Annual Meeting. I serve as national Councilor of the NWA.. so, in
addition to attending the meetings, I'll be in Council Meetings.

By the way... some records (regarding our summer season) for south central Texas..
including the Austin area (and two reporting locations)... just in from meteorologist/
lead forecaster and climate focal point Robert Blaha of the NWS/Austin-San Antonio...

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
900 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2008

...JANUARY TO SEPTEMBER 2008 ONE OF THE DRIER JANUARY
TO SEPTEMBER PERIODS AT AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO...

JANUARY TO SEPTEMBER 2008 HAS BEEN ONE OF THE DRIER FIRST NINE
MONTHS FOR CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE WEST PART
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WAS THE EXCEPTION...WITH MORE RAIN AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES FROM THE ACTIVE RAIN SYSTEMS TO THE WEST OVER
WEST TEXAS THIS YEAR.

THE LIST BELOW SHOWS THE DRIEST JANUARY TO SEPTEMBER PERIODS
FROM THE PAST AT LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LOCATION         RAIN AMOUNTS   DEPARTURE    RANK OF DRIEST JANUARY TO
                   IN INCHES   FROM NORMAL   SEPTEMBER AND PERIOD
                 JAN. TO SEP.   IN INCHES    OF RECORD

AUSTIN MABRY         12.94       -11.62     7TH DRIEST 1856 TO 2008

AUSTIN BERGSTROM     14.29       -10.89     6TH DRIEST 1943 TO 2008

BURNET MUNICIPAL     13.47                  DRIEST 2OO2 TO 2008
AIRPORT

HONDO MUNICIPAL      12.00                  2ND DRIEST 2000 TO 2008
AIRPORT

HALLETTSVILLE        14.97       -16.83     5TH DRIEST 1894 TO 2008
2 MILES NORTH                                WITH 1949 DATA MISSING

SAN ANTONIO          13.24       -11.28     14TH DRIEST 1871 TO 2008

SAN ANTONIO STINSON  10.19                  DRIEST 2002 TO 2008

AT DEL RIO...11.32 INCHES OF RAIN IN AUGUST...KEPT JANUARY TO
SEPTEMBER 2008 AWAY FROM BEING ONE OF THE DRIER FIRST 9 MONTHS OF
ANY YEAR.  DEL RIO RAINFALL FROM JANUARY TO SEPTEMBER 2008 WAS
16.64 INCHES...1.55 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FROM JUNE TO SEPTEMBER WAS ONE OF THE
WARMER SUCH PERIODS AT AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO.

THE LIST BELOW SHOWS THE WARMEST JUNE TO SEPTEMBER PERIODS FROM
THE PAST AT AUSTIN MABRY AND SAN ANTONIO.

LOCATION      AVERAGE JUN TO   DEPARTURE     RANK AND PERIOD
              SEP TEMPERATURE  FROM NORMAL      OF RECORD

AUSTIN MABRY      85.2          + 2.9       2ND WARMEST 1854 TO 2008
                                            1998 WAS WARMEST AT 85.8

SAN ANTONIO       83.7          + 1.3       TIED 12TH WARMEST 1885 TO
                                            2008...WITH JUN. TO SEP.
                                            1934 AND 1964.  1980 WAS
                                            THE WARMEST JUN. TO SEP.
                                            WITH 85.6 DEGREES.

THE PERIOD FROM JUNE TO AUGUST THIS YEAR TIED WITH JUNE TO
AUGUST 1998 AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR THE WARMEST JUNE TO AUGUST
SINCE 1854...WITH THE AVERAGE AT 86.7.  JUNE TO AUGUST OF
2008 WAS THE 8TH WARMEST JUNE TO AUGUST AT SAN ANTONIO...WITH
THE AVERAGE AT 85.1 DEGREES.

ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RECORD FOR THE AUSTIN CITY CLIMATE SITE IS THE
NUMBER OF 100 DEGREE DAYS AT AUSTIN MABRY THIS YEAR.  THROUGH
OCTOBER 9TH...AUSTIN MABRY HAD FIFTY 100 DEGREE DAYS IN 2008.
THIS IS THE 3RD MOST 100 DEGREE DAYS IN ANY GIVEN YEAR...AFTER
SIXTY SIX 100 DEGREE DAYS IN 1923...AND SIXTY NINE 100 DEGREE
DAYS IN 1925. THE LATEST DATE OF 100 DEGREES AT THE AUSTIN
CITY CLIMATE SITE WAS A HIGH OF 100 ON OCTOBER 2ND...1938.

AT DEL RIO...MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM LATE JUNE THROUGH AUGUST...
HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IN SEPTEMBER...MODERATED THE
AVERAGE JUNE TO SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURE TO 83.1 DEGREES.  THIS WAS
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LATEST 30 YEAR AVERAGE OF 83.3. THE WARMEST JUNE
TO SEPTEMBER AT DEL RIO WAS 87.3 DEGREES IN 1911...AND THE 2ND
WARMEST WAS 87.0 IN 1998.

$$



A really neat interactive tropical cyclone website....
www.stormpulse.com
(**Note: I talked today - Wednesday - with Matt at StormPulse because, as you
might have noticed, the forecast tracks have dissappeared as an option. He says there's
an issue that he's trying to work through in getting it restored!! Thanks, Matt!!)...

Troy

$$


Friday / 22 August 2008

I'm putting this on my web blog.. know if you're in a flood plain!!!

FEMA REDRAWS FLOODPLAIN MAPS

FOR TRAVIS, WILLIAMSON AND BURNET COUNTIES

 

AUSTIN – New floodplain maps for Travis, Williamson and parts of Burnet counties are set to take effect Sept. 26, and floodplain administrators advise property owners in affected areas to buy flood insurance before the effective date.

Property owners who purchase flood insurance prior to the effective date of the maps may lock in more favorable flood insurance rates and keep their premiums as low as possible.  It takes 30 days for flood insurance to take effect once it has been purchased. 

The maps are the result of a five-year effort by local cities, counties and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to use the most up-to-date hydrological studies, topography and technical information to reassess flood risks.  Many current maps are more than 30 years old and are based on outdated or insufficient data and models. 

The maps are used to determine whether flood insurance is required by mortgage companies and loan institutions.  Local communities are required to adopt and enforce the new maps in their building ordinances for residents to be eligible for the lower-cost, federally available flood insurance. The new maps also provide property owners the degree of flood risk to existing and proposed buildings and guide local community planners on where it is safe to build. 

Hundreds of properties will be affected by the new floodplain maps, including more than 550 homes and businesses around Lake Travis.  Based on the new maps, properties may move in or out of the floodplain. 

The most dramatic impact will be a 6-foot increase of the 100-year floodplain of Lake Travis from 716 feet above mean sea level (msl) to approximately 722 feet msl.  (A “100-year flood” refers to a magnitude of flood that has a 1 percent chance of occurring in any year.)

To view copies of the Preliminary Flood Insurance Rate Maps for Travis County, check the City of Austin’s Web site at www.ci.austin.tx.us/watershed/flood_fema_pmappdf.htm#current. Click on the Index map to locate the appropriate map panel for your property.

City of Austin residents may view maps at www.cityofaustin.org/watershed/floodplain_newmap.htm.

Information about FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program and the impacts of new maps to home and business owners can be viewed at www.fema.gov. More flood insurance information can be found on the National Flood Insurance Program’s FloodSmart Web site at www.floodsmart.gov/floodsmart/.

-30-

FACT SHEET:

FEMA Floodplain Revisions

 

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has remapped the floodplains of Travis, Williamson and part of Burnet counties to determine the risks associated with heavy rains in the Austin-Hill Country region. The revised floodplains become effective Sept. 26, 2008. This project is part of the agency’s nationwide effort to redraw the maps that predict where floods are likely to occur. Local governments rely on the maps to manage development that may affect – and be affected by – flooding. The National Flood Insurance Program uses the maps for flood insurance purposes.

 

Q: What is the major change in the revised floodplains?

A: The major change is in the floodplain along Lake Travis for a “100-year flood” (also known as a “1 percent flood”).  This floodplain has been raised by 6 feet, from 716 to 722 feet above mean sea level (msl). (A “100-year flood” is a magnitude of flooding that has a 1 percent chance of occurring each year.) The new floodplain becomes effective Sept. 26.

 

Q: How will this affect property owners along Lake Travis?

A: A Lake Travis resident or business whose property is at or below 722 feet msl will need to check with the local floodplain administrator regarding building requirements.  If the affected house, building or other structure has a mortgage, the property owner will be required to purchase flood insurance for any structure or improvement on the property within the 722 feet msl contour.

 

Q: About how many structures will be affected by this change?

A: FEMA estimates about 552 structures located between 716 and 722 feet msl will now be included in the floodplain, based on the number of structures that were identified along Lake Travis in a 2001 baseline study.

 

Q: Why did the floodplain elevation change?

A: The base flood elevation of 722 feet msl was determined through an engineering study by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.  The study used improved technologies and 30 years of additional storm data, including those significant storms that occurred in 1991, 1998 and 2002.  The previous findings that resulted in the 716 feet msl floodplain used older technologies, methods and hypothetical storm events, rather than recent significant floods.

 

Q: Why did FEMA need to remap the floodplain?

A:  FEMA ranks this region as among the highest at risk for flood damages. The ranking is based on the number of people at risk of flooding, the current population and rate of population growth, the number of homes repeatedly damaged by floods, and the number of homes with flood-insurance policies.  FEMA’s responsibility to local communities is to provide the best available data regarding hazards from flooding.  The purpose is to protect lives and property.

 

Q:  Was there local support for the remapping project?

A:  There was strong local commitment of technical and financial resources for the project. The City of Austin, Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) and the Texas Natural Resources Information System, a division of the Texas Water Development Board, are technical partners on the project. Travis County and 12 communities also agreed to cooperate with FEMA on the map project.

 

Q:  Why was there local support for the remapping project?

A:  Local officials need more accurate maps to manage floodplains effectively and to help protect lives and property. Most of the current FEMA maps are based on data gathered between eight and 25 years ago.

 

Q:  Weren’t the Highland Lakes and dams built to control floods?

A:  Only Mansfield Dam and Lake Travis are designed for flood control. They were built to reduce the effect of floods on downstream residents and communities and to store water for the benefit of the lower Colorado River basin. Lake Travis can store as much as 260 billion gallons of floodwaters. Through floodgate operations, LCRA releases the floodwaters in a controlled manner to prevent or reduce flooding of downstream regions. The other five dams and Highland Lakes were built primarily for hydroelectricity and water supply. These dams reduce but do not eliminate the threat of heavy flooding.

 

Q: I am building (or considering building) on property that is located between 716 and 722 feet msl.  How will the new floodplain designation affect my project?

A: If you begin construction of your project prior to Sept. 26 with the proper permits from your community’s local floodplain manager, your project will be “grandfathered” to the current 716 feet msl floodplain. However, depending on your local community’s regulations, you may not be allowed to build within the 716-722 feet msl contour if you have not already completed the permit process.

 

Q:  How else will the new floodplain affect property owners?

A:  The effect will depend on the location of the property. There may be flood insurance rate benefits to property owners in the newly designated floodplain if they obtain flood insurance prior to the change. Visit FEMA’s Web site www.fema.gov/nfip/avgcost.shtm for more information.

 

Q: Can LCRA or my local community change the floodplain for my property?

A: No.  Neither LCRA nor local communities set floodplains.  FEMA is responsible for making that determination.  Your local community floodplain administrator can help determine whether your property is in the new floodplain and, if so, your options for building or obtaining flood insurance. You can find your local floodplain administrator on the Texas Colorado River Floodplain Coalition’s Web site at www.tcrfc.org.

 

 
 -30-


$$

Friday morning / 1 August 2008







































































































Jim Hargrove from Round Rock sent us this picture of a cumulonimbus cloud that was visible
from Round Rock out west between Burnet and Llano yesterday (Thursday) afternoon. The
multicolored cloud at the top is known as an "iridescent" cloud caused by very small, uniformly
sized cloud particles that have the setting sun shining through them to produce a
multicolored "corona" effect.


Thanks, Jim, for the picture... happy viewing!!!

tk



$$


Thursday night (late) / 26 June 2008

A real interesting session or two today at the AMS Meetings in Denver on (get this now) stating uncertainty in weather forecasts!!
I will be writing a blog on this issue in the next few weeks.. but I was thinking, how about asking you what you think about how a
meteorologist should be stating the uncertainty that is present really in every weather forecast (sometimes we're pretty confident
about a forecast but, honestly, sometimes we're not!!). What should we be saying?? Drop me a
note at
troykimmel@clearchannel.com and let me know what you think!!

tk

$$

By the way.. some of you have asked about being able to see the daily highs, lows, etc for Camp Mabry and
Bergstrom. There are a couple of links you can use to see what we call the "CF6,"  which is the National Weather Service daily
text product that shows, in columns, the daily climate data. Here is a "decoder" page so you understand what you're seeing...
CF6 Decoder Page

Austin Bergstrom (KAUS) CF6 Text Product
Camp Mabry (KATT) CF6 Text Product

tk 

$$
Wednesday 07-16-2008 9:29pm CT
Troy's Weather Questions...

Drop me an email with your weather question at troykimmel@clearchannel.com and
perhaps I'll include it here for all to see!!!


(Wed/16 July 2008)
Question from Ed...
Troy,
What is the average pressure for this area?
When you say we are in a low or suffering from a high what should the pressure be reading?
Ed

Answer:
Average atmospheric pressure (corrected to sea level).. this is also referred to as standard atmospheric pressure.. is 29.92 inches of mercury (also equivalent to 1013.2 millibars and 14.7 lbs per square inch).
Arctic high pressure areas.. bitterly cold air... can see atmospheric pressures above 32.00 inches of mercury.. while hurricanes and tornadoes are on the low end with somewhere around 27.00 to 28.00 inches of mercury.
Around here.. pressure generally is always going to be somewhere between 29.50 and 30.50 inches of mercury.. unless we have very cold heavier surface air in place (can be higher than 30.50") or when a strong low pressure area or tropical system is approaching from the Gulf of Mexico (can be lower than 29.50").
When pressure is less than 29.92 inches of mercury, we generally state that lower pressure is dominant while when it is higher than 29.92", it's higher than average pressure.
Hope this helps..
Troy



(Tues/10 June 2008)
Question from Tim...

Hello Troy,

Excellent weather reporting! I look forward to hearing you on KVET in the mornings. I have a question regarding 2007 temperatures for the Austin area. I’m trying to find out how many days in 2007 ‘officially’ exceeded 100 degrees. I have a friendly bet with a friend that we hit 100 degrees last year, but never went over that for the Austin area. Can you tell me where I can find Austin’s official weather data?

Regards,
Tim


Answer:
Well, it depends.
Camp Mabry hit 100 three times in August 2008.. Austin Bergstrom never hit 100 in 2007.
and use the "CF6s" to look at the data (column #2 is the max calendar day - 12 midnight LT
to 12 midnight LT - maximum temp)..


$$


(Sun/08 June 2008)
Question from Robert...

Troy, a friend of mine works outside just north of main (UT) campus. He told me that it seemed as though yesterday the wind would gust for long periods of time and the suddenly it would completely stop for a few minutes and then return to gusting. Is this something that sometimes occurs when we have very windy days like yesterday or was my friend full of wind?

Answer:
Actually, Robert, there's some validity to what your friend says. Surface winds are strongly influenced by physical geography (underlying Earth's surface). Years ago, I remember staying overnight on an anchored sailboat out at Lake Travis. During the night, as I sat out on the deck, I noticed that wind would blow for a period of time then become almost calm for a few minutes before the wind would pick up again. These wind phases continued on and off for a good part of the night. Assuming where you are geographically, indeed, you may see these cyclic types of wind currents. Remember that city (urban) areas, you have more concrete which tends to hold onto heat longer into the night than surrounding countryside. The Balcones Escarpment, as well, also can act to focus wind in the areas close to the escarpment.

$$

(Sun/08 June 2008)
Question from Wayne...
We hear a lot from some folk saying Global Warming is causing all these early hot temperatures. Bit if things are warming, why are we also getting record breaking cold temps in the winter?

Answer:
Your question, Wayne, is a good one. Unfortunately, there are many folks out there that oversimplify the global warming issue.
There are some things that we do know...
(1) Global warming is occurring (proven by air temp records over last 25 years). The disagreement out there between some scientists really concerns what is causing this warming and how rapid this warming is occurring.  
(2) Climate change is occurring (and this is a gem.. it always has been!! Climate change has been occurring, cooling and heating to some degree or another, since the Earth came along. When climate change quits occurring, that's when I'll worry!!)
As you see, the whole issue of climate change is a very complex one that can't be summed up in simple statements.
You're right about the most recent winter being a relatively cold one globally. This type of flunctuation is really not that unusual, and, in fact, probably has more to do with the Southern Oscillation (warming and cooling of the Pacific Ocean around of the Equator) as well as other oscillations that we see in the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean. AS far as the recent warmth is concerned, depending on exactly where we end up for the summer, the year may end up being pretty close to 30 year averages temperature wise when we're through the year.
No matter how we end up, though, we still must be good environmental stewards and do what we can to minimize the release of greenhouse gases and other pollutants.

$$

Question...
Can you provide the link for your guide for the severe weather history for
the Austin area?

Answer:
No problem. Like below, this is a digital document (PDF) found on line at..
http://www.utexas.edu/depts/grg/kimmel/inclement.pdf

$$

Question...
Can I get a copy of the SkyWarn Spotter Manual for south central Texas?

Answer:
This is now a digital (PDF) document found on line at...
http://www.utexas.edu/depts/grg/kimmel/SCTXSkywarnManual.pdf

$$

Question...
Hey, Troy, with the recent hailstorm, I was wondering how can I get a
hail diameter reporting chart??

Answer:
Here ya go.. this is what I use in our weather office...

Hail Size /Common Size.. Inch Diameter... Hail Freefall Velocity

... Non Severe Reports...
Pea Size... 1/8-1/4 inch (0.25")... 25 mph
Pinto Bean Size... 3/8 inch (0.40")... 30 mph
Regular Marble Size... 1/2 inch (0.50")... 35 mph

Dime Size... 5/8 inch (0.60")... 40 mph


... Severe Report...
Penny Size... 3/4 inch (0.75")... 43 mph

Nickle Size... 7/8 inch (0.88")... 47 mph

Quarter Size... 1 inch (1.00")... 50 mph

Half Dollar Size... 1 1/4 inch (1.25")... 56 mph

Ping Pong Ball Size... 1 1/2 inch (1.50")... 61 mph

Golf Ball Size... 1 3/4 inch (1.75")... 66 mph

Hen Egg Size... 2 inches (2.00")... 72 mph
Racket Ball Size ... 2 1/4 inches (2.25")... 76 mph

Tennis Ball Size... 2 1/2 inches (2.50")... 80 mph
Baseball Size... 2 3/4 inches (2.75")... 85 mph

Tea Cup Size... 3 inches (3.00")... 89 mph 
Grapefruit Size... 4 inches (4.00")... 106 mph 
Softball Size... 4 1/2 inches (4.50")... 117 mph

CD/DVD Diameter Size... 4 3/4 inches (4.75")... 122 mph

$$